Kalshi’s Market Forecasts Match Fed Economists Amid Regulatory Fight

Prediction markets are gaining credibility and controversy. A recent Federal Reserve study found Kalshi’s implied forecasts for the federal funds target rate produced an average absolute error over roughly a 150-day horizon, comparable to the New York Fed’s Survey of Professional Forecasters.

In short, crowd bets looking three meetings ahead matched top economists on average. Regulatory scrutiny has intensified. CFTC Chair Michael Selig declared the agency’s intent to assert exclusive federal oversight and filed an amicus brief in the Ninth Circuit in the Crypto.com v.

Nevada Gaming Control Board case after Nevada blocked Crypto.com’s sports event contracts as unlicensed gambling; a district court sided with Nevada and the dispute now proceeds to the Ninth Circuit. Former CFTC Chairman Chris Giancarlo filed a supporting brief warning that expanding state intervention threatens the uniform regulatory framework over derivatives.

United States, Nevada

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