María Corina Machado has 28% chance to lead Venezuela after Maduro's capture

Following the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on Saturday, attention has turned to the country’s transition. María Corina Machado, an opposition leader and winner of the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025, is the second-favorite to lead Venezuela by the end of 2026 with a 28% chance, according to predictions market Kalshi, trailing Edmundo González Urrutia at 32%.

Vice President Delcy Eloína Rodríguez is third with 27% and was appointed acting president by Venezuela’s Supreme Court after Maduro’s capture. Maduro was transferred to New York to face federal charges related to narcotics trafficking and corruption. US President Donald Trump said the US would run Venezuela until a new leadership is established and commented on Machado: "I think it would be very tough for her to be the leader.

She doesn't have the support within or the respect within the country. She's a very nice woman, but she doesn't have the respect." Analysts have disputed Trump’s view; Liz Rebecca Alarcón, founder and CEO of Project Pulso, told ABC that the opposition leader already has overwhelming support.

Machado has promoted wider use of Bitcoin in Venezuela. Speaking with the Human Rights Foundation's chief strategy officer Alex Gladstein in late 2024, she said: "Venezuelans found a lifeline in Bitcoin during hyperinflation, using it to protect their wealth and to finance their escape.

Key Topics

Politics, Maria Corina Machado, Nicolas Maduro, Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia, Delcy Rodriguez, Bitcoin