Metric Suggests 88% Odds Bitcoin Will Be Higher by Early 2027

An informal historical price metric gives Bitcoin an 88% chance of trading higher ten months from now, implying an average return that would put BTC around $122,000, network economist Timothy Peterson reports. Peterson notes that 50% of the past 24 months were positive, which he says implies an 88% probability of a higher price in ten months.

He converts the average return as exp(60%)-1 = 82%, yielding the $122,000 figure, and says the data set goes back to 2011. He cautions the tool measures frequency rather than magnitude, so Bitcoin could move sideways for months while the metric falls, but still finds it useful for spotting trend inflection points.

Peterson describes the approach as "informal." Despite low sentiment and Bitcoin's underperformance since Q4 2025, other bullish views persist: Bernstein has a $150,000 target and calls Bitcoin's recent drawdown its "weakest bear case," while Wells Fargo projects $150 billion in capital inflows into Bitcoin and stocks.

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