Michael B. Jordan Pulls Ahead of Timothée Chalamet in Oscars' Polymarket

Michael B. Jordan has overtaken Timothée Chalamet on the prediction market Polymarket as the frontrunner for the 2026 Oscars Best Actor prize. His odds have risen more than fourfold since March 1, and he won the Best Actor award at the Actor Awards last week. A week out from the Academy Awards, Polymarket traders place Jordan at about 47% and Chalamet at 45%; Leonardo DiCaprio is at 5%, Wagner Moura 4% and Ethan Hawke 1%.

Jordan earned his nomination for portraying twin brothers Smoke and Stack Moore in the 2025 vampire horror film "Sinners." Chalamet is nominated for his role in "Marty Supreme," a fictional drama about a table tennis player. The Academy Awards will air on March 15, and the Best Actor prediction market has over $5.6 million in trading volume at the time of publication.

Polymarket opened applications for select, waitlisted US users in December 2025 and expects a full US-regulated rollout later in 2026, though regulatory hurdles remain.

United States

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