Model backs Under in Patriots-Broncos as NFL Championship Round lines set

Cbssports: The 2026 NFL Championship Round will be played Sunday with the AFC title game at 3 p.m. ET and the NFC title game at 6:30 p.m. ET. DraftKings Sportsbook lists the Broncos as 5.5-point home underdogs to the Patriots (total 41.5) in the AFC game, and the Seahawks are 2.5-point favorites over the Rams (total 47.5) in the NFC game.

The Broncos enter the game without Bo Nix (ankle), and Jarrett Stidham — who steps in as Denver's starter — has not thrown a pass in two years, though the team is said to have the rest edge. New England's Drake Maye has been turnover-prone in the postseason, including four total fumbles plus an interception against Houston last week and six total fumbles (three lost), two interceptions and 10 sacks across two games, per the report. Seattle has made the Super Bowl in each of its three previous times being a top seed; the Seahawks are favored by 2.5 points over the Rams.

SportsLine's computer model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is described as being up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated picks, identifies the Under (41.5) in Patriots vs. Broncos as a strong pick, projecting a combined 40 points and the Under hitting in well over 50% of simulations. The model has also locked in picks for both title games, including two A-rated selections and calls on winners and covers; the full set of picks is available at SportsLine.

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