Model favors Bears to cover vs. Rams in 2026 divisional round

Cbssports reports the 2026 NFL divisional round continues Sunday, highlighted by Patriots vs. Texans at 3 p.m. ET and Rams vs. Bears at 6:30 p.m. ET, and SportsLine's computer model is backing the Chicago Bears to cover.

The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times, rates the Bears (+4.5, 48.5) as covering well over 50% of the time and projects the Over to hit in a majority of simulations. The Patriots are listed at -3.5 (40.5) and are 1-6 versus the line when holding a rest advantage, while the Rams are 4.5-point road favorites (O/U 48.5); Los Angeles was the lone Wild Card team that lost against the spread but won outright and has dropped two straight ATS on the road. The analysis notes Los Angeles allowed 31 points in its Wild Card win and 28.3 points over its last seven games, while Chicago has given up just 16.3 points over its last four home contests and has only two ATS losses in its past nine games.

SportsLine says the model is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception and is on a 53-37 run on top-rated picks dating back to 2024; it has locked in picks for every divisional-round matchup and lists updated lines and full predictions on its site.

Key Topics

Sports, Chicago Bears, Los Angeles Rams, New England Patriots, Houston Texans, Nfl Divisional Round