NYDIG: Bitcoin-tech stock correlation is overstated

NYDIG says Bitcoin’s recent parallel with US software stocks reflects shared exposure to macro events rather than a structural convergence. Greg Cipolaro, the firm's head of research, noted the weeklong rally prompted some to call the cryptocurrency a proxy for the sector.

“While the visual fit of their indexed price is compelling, the conclusion that Bitcoin and software equities have structurally converged, or that they share common exposure to themes such as AI or quantum risk, is overstated,” Cipolaro wrote. He added the tandem rally “more plausibly reflects shared exposure to the current macro regime, specifically long-duration, liquidity-sensitive risk assets, rather than evidence of a structural convergence between Bitcoin and software equities.” Correlations on a 90-day rolling basis have risen with software stocks and with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, yet Cipolaro said the majority of Bitcoin’s price movement remains unexplained by equities.

United States

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