How the oil shock could cancel out consumers' savings from Trump's tax bill

A sustained rise in oil prices tied to the Iran war could wipe out consumers' tax savings from Donald Trump's "One Big Beautiful Bill," Tavis McCourt, an institutional equity strategist at Raymond James, said this week. In McCourt's bear case, crude stays $20 a barrel higher for at least a year, boosting Americans' gas spending by about $150 billion annually — a sum that exceeds the tax cuts expected this year from the budget bill, by his estimate.

He calculated that from an average of $400 billion a year in gas spending rising to $550 billion, a roughly 38% increase from pre-war oil levels. Markets have shown signs of cooling after Trump suggested the war with Iran could be nearing an end on Monday. Brent crude, which had edged toward $120 on Sunday night, traded around $87 on Tuesday — about $15 higher than the day before the US and Israel first struck on Iran and below McCourt's $20 threshold for a sustained offset.

United States

oil prices, iran war, tax cuts, donald trump, gas spending, brent crude, raymond james, tavis mccourt, tax savings, crude