One Bitcoin Chart Correctly Predicts the 5% Bounce — But 3 Metrics Now Question It

Bitcoin posted a near 5% rebound from its recent low and tested the $76,980 area after a bullish divergence formed on the 4-hour chart, but the move stalled at that level.

On-chain data show notable supply clusters in the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD) near $76,990 and the larger zone near $84,640, suggesting sell walls where holders are likely to exit rather than add positions.

At the same time, exchange reserves have risen again from their recent low to about 2.752 million BTC and the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) remains below 1 near 0.97, indicating coins are being sold at a loss and that investors may be using rebounds to exit.

The Smart Money Index is also trending weak on the 4-hour chart, so upside appears limited unless Bitcoin can close cleanly above $76,980, then $79,360 and ultimately $84,640; a 4-hour close below $72,920 would point to further downside risk.

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