Oscar predictions 2026: Who will win vs. who should win this year

The Oscars look set to deliver several nail‑biters, with Best Actor described as the most competitive the category has been in decades. Michael B. Jordan, Timothée Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio are all in the mix, while Wagner Moura and Ethan Hawke also have solid shots.

The big Best Picture duel is between One Battle After Another (13 nominations) and Sinners (16 — an all‑time record), and both Warner Bros. films are expected to haul in plenty of gold. Post critic Johnny Oleksinski lays out who will win and who should win at the 2026 Academy Awards, hosted by Conan O’Brien on Sunday, March 15 at 7:00 p.m.

ET on ABC. For Best Picture Oleksinski predicts One Battle After Another, noting the film’s march through awards season and its wins at the Producers Guild and BAFTA. If Sinners upends that, it would be the story of the night. His pick for who should win is Hamnet, a sad, tender and beautifully acted film that often finds its visibility at Oscar time.

oscars, best actor, best picture, jordan, timothée chalamet, leonardo dicaprio, wagner moura, ethan hawke, sinners, hamnet