Polymarket Hits $478M as Kalshi Khamenei Market Draws Backlash

Polymarket recorded a single-day notional trading volume of $478 million, with the politics category accounting for $220 million — 46.2% of the platform’s activity. The spike coincided with coordinated strikes by the United States and Israel on Iran and highlighted the market’s ability to price geopolitical events faster than traditional finance or polling models.

Certain strike-timing contracts set records, with individual trades clearing up to $90 million. The surge also drew allegations of insider trading: Bubblemaps identified at least six addresses that profited about $1.2 million from bets tied to the Iran conflict, with most wallets funded in the 24 hours before and buying “yes” hours before the strike.

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