Polymarket saw $529M traded on bets tied to bombing of Iran

Users of prediction markets made—and in some cases profited from—large bets tied to the bombing of Iran. On Polymarket, $529 million was traded on contracts tied to the timing of the attack. An analysis by analytics firm Bubblemaps SA found six newly-created accounts made a profit of $1 million by correctly betting that the U.S.

would strike Iran by February 28, behavior that could indicate insider trading. The bets might merely reflect broader speculation about U.S. intentions in Iran. Bubblemaps CEO Nicolas Vaiman said the circulation of information "involving war or conflict," coupled with Polymarket's anonymity, "can create incentives for informed participants to act early." In January, analytics firm Polysights noted an apparent spike in bets around the likelihood that Iran’s now-deceased Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei would no longer hold that role by the end of March.

Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said, "We don't list markets directly tied to death.

Iran

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