Polymarket bettors take heavy losses after Trump reverses Greenland tariff plan

Beincrypto reports Polymarket traders suffered sizable losses after President Trump reversed proposed tariffs on the European Union and said he would not use military force to pursue control of Greenland. The episode revived the so-called “TACO trade” narrative — “Trump Always Chickens Out,” a phrase coined by Financial Times columnist Robert Armstrong in May 2025 — which rests on a pattern of extreme threats followed by retreats.

The president had announced a weekend plan for a 10% tariff on eight European nations to take effect February 1, with a possible rise to 25% by June tied to a US agreement on Greenland; he later said a productive meeting with NATO leaders had formed a framework for a future deal and, based on that understanding, he would not impose the scheduled tariffs.

The tariff retreat triggered rapid repricing in prediction markets: Polymarket odds that Trump would acquire Greenland before 2027 fell to about 11%. Lookonchain reported a new account, GamblingRuinsLives, placed $105,000 on “Yes” and is now down roughly $46,000 with the position valued at about $56,300, while another user, opticnrvs, lost over $91,000.

Key Topics

Politics, Donald Trump, Polymarket, Greenland, Taco Trade, Prediction Markets