Polymarket defends betting on World War 3 as a public service

In the early hours of February 28th, the U.S. and Israeli militaries launched an unprovoked air strike against Iran after weeks of tense posturing. Those plans had been in development for months, even as nuclear deal negotiations aimed at replacing the agreement Donald Trump tore up in 2017 continued.

Civilian death tolls are rising and the full scope of the violence has yet to reveal itself. As the conflict unfolded, Polymarket — a platform that lets users bet anonymously on anything from basketball games to bombing campaigns — saw heightened activity. The site has long courted controversy, and it defends the practice by describing prediction markets as a public service: an "unbiased forecast" harnessing the wisdom of the crowd.

An editorial note atop its Iran betting pages says that after discussing with those directly affected, the platform believed prediction markets could answer questions that TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Iran

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