Polymarket briefly hosted, then removed, a wager on a nuclear detonation

On February 28, the United States and Israel began bombing Iran, claiming the lives of more than 1,000 civilians. Today, users on Polymarket, the crypto-fueled trading and prediction market platform, started betting on when the next nuclear bomb will drop. Several anonymous betters on Polymarket correctly predicted exactly when Iran would be struck on February 28, and the platform defended its decision to let users wager on the bombings in an editorial note saying the “ability” to wager on events such as these “is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times.” David Sirota spotted a new wager on Bluesky titled “Nuclear weapon detonation by…?” The bet carried the tags “Geopolitcal” and “Ukraine” and listed March 31, June 30, and “Before 2027.” It stated the market “will resolve to “Yes” if a nuclear weapon is detonated anywhere in the world between December 17, 2025 ET, and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.” Between Sirota’s post and now, Polymarket removed the wager.

polymarket, prediction market, crypto betting, nuclear detonation, nuclear bomb, iran, israel, united states, bluesky, david sirota