Polymarket Odds for Clarity Act Jump to 82% as White House Sets March 1 Deadline

Polymarket pushed the probability that the Clarity Act will become law in 2026 to a record 82% earlier today, up from roughly 60% on February 18. At press time the figure had eased to 78%, still reflecting a notable jump and growing market confidence as negotiators move quickly.

Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse told Fox Business he sees a 90% chance the bill will pass by the end of April, saying, “The White House is pushing hard on this, and that is a big reason why it will get done. It needs to get done for US leadership.” The administration has set a March 1 deadline to advance the legislation and held a third meeting this week to press talks forward.

Administration discussions have included crypto firms and banking representatives. A crypto industry representative told journalist Eleanor Terrett that banks’ concerns may stem more from competitive dynamics than measurable deposit flight, while a bank source said trade groups are calling for further analysis of how stablecoins could affect traditional deposits.

United States

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