Polymarket Predicts $75,000 Bitcoin Next Week, But Charts Signal Resistance

Polymarket’s largest February outcome — at 17% — currently bets Bitcoin will top $75,000, with volumes for that market exceeding $88 million. Bitcoin itself has traded mostly flat near $68,000 over the past 24 hours and shows a mild seven-day decline; the probability of the $75,000 outcome has already fallen by more than 50% even as it remains the most popular directional bet.

The next most likely outcome sits under $60,000 at a 12% probability, highlighting a split in expectations. Technical indicators introduce caution. The daily chart formed a lower high between November 15 and February 16 while the RSI made a higher high, creating a hidden bearish divergence that typically signals continuation of a downtrend.

Since that divergence appeared, Bitcoin has corrected nearly 6%, which reduces the odds of a swift push toward the prediction market’s $75,000 target. On-chain activity offers a mixed picture.

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