Polymarket says Jan. 3 operation was not a U.S. invasion, refuses payouts

Polymarket has declined to pay users who wagered that the United States would invade Venezuela, saying the Jan. 3 U.S. military operation that captured President Nicolás Maduro and his wife did not meet the market’s definition of an invasion. The disputed market asked whether “the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela,” and said its resolution would rest on “a consensus of credible sources.” After U.S.

Special Forces flew into Venezuela and seized Mr. Maduro in the early morning of Jan. 3, many bettors expected to collect, but Polymarket added a note saying the action did not qualify as an invasion. Polymarket’s note said: "President Trump’s statement that they will 'run' Venezuela while referencing ongoing talks with the Venezuelan government does not alone qualify the snatch-and-extract mission to capture Maduro as an invasion." Polymarket declined to comment further, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission did not respond to a request for comment.

The platform said roughly $20 billion was traded on it last year. Odds on a U.S. invasion jumped after the incursion and have since plummeted, which the outlet said implied very little likelihood of a payout, even as about $6.5 million remained bet on an invasion through the end of January and roughly $2 million through the end of March.

Key Topics

Business, Polymarket, Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, Donald Trump, Cftc