Polymarket traders assign 78% odds to arrest as Guthrie case yields new clues

A Bitcoin wallet referenced in the ransom note sent after Nancy Guthrie’s disappearance showed activity for the first time, and surveillance footage was released as the search entered its second week. At the same time, traders on the prediction market Polymarket are assigning roughly a 78% probability that the kidnapper will be arrested by February 28, a development that has prompted ethical concerns about wagering on an active investigation.

Guthrie, the mother of “Today” show host Savannah Guthrie, was last seen on January 31 and reported missing on February 1. Authorities found blood spatter near the home’s entrance and noted that her phone, wallet, medication and car were left behind. The FBI is assisting the Pima County Sheriff’s Department, and the agency said it was “not aware” of any continued communication between the family and the alleged kidnappers after February 9.

The ransom note emailed to multiple U.S. outlets demanded $4 million in Bitcoin by February 5 and $6 million by February 9.

United States, Pima County

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