Polymarket Traders Profit $1M on US-Iran Strike Bets, Stir Insider Concerns

Six Polymarket traders earned roughly $1 million after accurately betting the United States would strike Iran before the end of February. The six wallets were created in February and concentrated almost all activity on contracts predicting the timing of a potential US attack.

In several cases, shares were purchased only hours before explosions were first reported in Tehran, and some contracts were acquired for around $0.10, data shared by analytics firm Bubblemaps SA shows. "In cases involving war or conflict, information can circulate within a broader circle before becoming public," Nicolas Vaiman, chief executive of Bubblemaps, said.

"Combined with the fact that Polymarket generally only requires a wallet to trade, which allows for a high level of anonymity, this can create incentives for informed participants to act early." More than $529 million flowed into strike-related contracts on Polymarket during the escalation, with the Feb.

United States; Iran, Tehran

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