Polymarket says it will not yet pay out on Venezuela invasion bets after Maduro capture

The online wager platform Polymarket has angered some gamblers by declaring it will not pay out yet on millions of dollars’ worth of bets on a US invasion of Venezuela, arguing that the capture of the then president, Nicolás Maduro, does not qualify. Before Donald Trump’s forces captured Maduro on Saturday morning, some traders appeared to have anticipated the move by placing bets on “prediction markets”, gambling platforms that allow individuals to wager on a range of markets, typically binary yes/no or higher/lower outcomes.

Last Friday an anonymous trader on Polymarket appeared to invest $30,000 (£22,343) on the market “Maduro out by 31 January 2026” and, after the capture was announced, seemed to have made profits of $436,759.61. After Polymarket clarified that the seizure of Maduro did not qualify for a winning bet, the odds of an invasion before the end of January crashed to below 5%.

Traders have placed more than $10.5m on bets of an invasion this year, with the majority on the 31 January deadline and the remainder on contracts for the end of March and December; some traders have bet tens of thousands of dollars. Polymarket was approached for comment.

Key Topics

World, Polymarket, Venezuela, Nicolas Maduro, Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jr