Polymarket's 5-cent signal undercut Netanyahu death rumors

The rumor began with Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claiming it had struck Benjamin Netanyahu's office and spread through forged screenshots and a low-resolution freeze-frame that some said showed six fingers on his right hand. Conservative influencer Candace Owens amplified the claims on X, and Iran's Tasnim News Agency published a piece arguing that a subsequent coffee shop clip, posted by Netanyahu's account to debunk the story, was itself generated by artificial intelligence.

Each rebuttal was reframed as further proof, and the conspiracy rapidly became self-sealing. Meanwhile, Polymarket's contract for "Netanyahu out by March 31" traded at roughly 4 to 5 cents, implying a 4–5% chance of him leaving office before the end of the month, and the market held steady.

A single account bought nearly 3.8 million shares at 4.7 cents — about $151,000 staked, a position that would pay out $3.8 million if correct and that was, at the time reported, underwater by roughly $26,000.

Israel

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