Prediction market bets on Khamenei killing spur outrage from all sides

US and Israeli forces killed Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei over the weekend, and users on prediction markets responded by placing large wagers as strikes unfolded. At least $255 million was bet across Kalshi and Polymarket on outcomes tied to strikes in Iran and Khamenei’s status, while the market-surveillance firm Bubblemaps flagged several cryptocurrency wallets that collectively made over $1.2 million in bets related to the strikes.

Polymarket showed at least $200 million staked on four wagers tied to US strikes, regime change, or Khamenei’s death. Kalshi, which is restricted by US law from offering markets that settle on assassination or war, recorded almost $55 million in related contracts before it halted activity and posted updates about volatility.

Kalshi said it does not offer death-settling markets and that any payout would be based on the last traded price before confirmed reporting of death; its co-founder later said bets would be paid out at that minute and that buyers who traded after would be partly reimbursed.

Iran

khamenei, prediction markets, kalshi, polymarket, bubblemaps, cryptocurrency wallets, us strikes, israeli forces, regime change, market volatility