Prediction markets hit $3B run rate, could reach $10B by 2030, Citizens says

Prediction markets are running at an annualized revenue rate above $3 billion, up from about $2 billion in December, and could reach $10 billion by 2030, a Monday report from U.S. bank Citizens shows. Analysts led by Devin Ryan called ~$10 billion a reasonable medium-term waypoint rather than an end state.

Rising volumes, tighter market structure and early institutional engagement are pushing these markets beyond their gambling roots toward a new asset class. Platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket are drawing significant volume and attention from mainstream finance and regulators, mirroring the early evolution of listed derivatives and digital assets.

January volumes rose more than 40% from December, with February tracking at a similar pace despite expectations of a post-football slowdown. While sports remain a key liquidity driver, activity is broadening into macroeconomic, political and regulatory events that better align with institutional demand.

United States

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