Prediction markets post record weekly volume amid fragmentation and insider concerns

Beincrypto reports that, according to Dune data, prediction markets posted a record $3.7 billion in weekly trading volume last week and a weekly notional volume of $5.57 billion. User engagement has risen alongside volume: weekly active users peaked at 335,583 in the first week of January and transaction counts have trended up.

Activity is concentrated in politics, crypto and sports, driving most volume on platforms such as Polymarket and Kalshi. Lookonchain reported stark individual swings — one Polymarket trader, 'beachboy4', moved from more than $6.8 million in losses to about $395,000 in profit after reportedly profiting more than $10.5 million across five predictions over two days, and the post added, 'That said, his bet sizes have surged — from a few hundred thousand per bet before to over $3 million on a single bet now.' The outlet also noted two users lost nearly $10 million in less than a month and warned, 'At ~50¢ odds, you’re basically flipping a coin.

Betting big just means losing faster.' Major industry players are also moving into the space: Coinbase is reportedly preparing to launch prediction markets, a Gemini affiliate has secured regulatory approval to begin offering markets to US customers, Trump Media & Technology Group has signaled intentions to enter the space, and Fanatics announced in December a fan-led prediction market platform via a partnership with Crypto.com.

Key Topics

Crypto, Prediction Markets, Polymarket, Kalshi, Coinbase, Gemini