Senator Chris Murphy Seeks Ban on Prediction Markets Over Insider, War Bets

Senator Chris Murphy said he will introduce legislation to ban prediction markets he called "corrupt and destabilizing," arguing that insiders with advanced knowledge of geopolitical events can exploit such platforms. He shared a screenshot of Polymarket odds tied to military strikes involving Israel and Gaza as an example, at a time when prediction markets have become increasingly popular in the United States over the past year.

Industry leaders pushed back, saying the proposal conflates regulated domestic exchanges with unregulated offshore platforms that the United States already bars from operating. Tarek Mansour, co‑founder of federally regulated Kalshi, wrote: "Senator, regulated prediction markets are not allowed to do war markets.

The market you’re posting is unregulated and offshore." The Commodity Futures Trading Commission forbids onshore prediction markets from listing derivatives contracts involving terrorism, assassination, or war, and bars other activities deemed contrary to the public interest.

United States

chris murphy, prediction markets, insider knowledge, polymarket, israel gaza, kalshi, cftc, offshore platforms, war markets, legislation