Sheinbaum Balances Mexico’s Cuba Ties and U.S. Oil Threats

When President Trump declared a "national emergency" last month, accusing Cuba of harboring Russian spies and "welcoming" enemies like Iran and Hamas, he warned that countries that sell or provide oil to the Caribbean nation could be subject to high tariffs. The threat seemed directed at Mexico; he said he had specifically asked President Claudia Sheinbaum to cut off its supply.

Ms. Sheinbaum must now reconcile Mexico’s long-standing alliance with Havana — rooted in economic and cultural cooperation and a shared wariness of U.S. intervention — with an essential but increasingly strained relationship with Washington. Mexico had been sending about 22,000 barrels a day, a figure that fell to about 7,000 toward the end of 2025; the last delivery arrived in early January, and Mexico has not sent any oil to Cuba since early last month.

The Sheinbaum administration has sought to distinguish commercial contracts between state-owned Pemex and the Cuban government from humanitarian aid, which it says must continue.

Mexico

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