Traders profited on prediction markets after Maduro’s capture

US traders appear to have made large profits by betting on the capture of Venezuela’s president, Nicolás Maduro, on prediction markets after his capture was announced on Saturday morning. Ahead of Donald Trump’s shock announcement that morning, traders seemed to have anticipated Maduro’s political demise by placing timely wagers.

Last Friday, an apparent new trader on Polymarket.com seemed to invest $30,000 on the market “Maduro out by January 31, 2026?”. After the capture was announced on Saturday morning, that investor seemed to have made profits of $436,759.61, with corresponding losses to punters on the other side of the bet realised in a matter of hours.

Polymarket data suggests the market-implied chance rose from 5.5% at 3pm GMT on 2 January to 11% by 6am on 3 January, 28.5% at 6.30am, 56.5% by 7.30am and almost 99% by 9.30am. A related Polymarket wager, “Maduro in US custody by January 31?”, also appears to have attracted two trades matched at prices of 0.22 and 0.11 early on Saturday before jumping above 0.99.

Prediction markets are online platforms that allow individuals to bet against each other on binary outcomes, from the identity of the next Republican nominee to daily moves in the S&P 500. Their volume grew from under $100m in early 2024 to over $13bn, according to a report from the crypto firms Dune and Keyrock, and Donald Trump Jr has taken advisory roles at the companies Kalshi and Polymarket.

Key Topics

Business, Nicolás Maduro, Polymarket, Prediction Markets, Donald Trump Jr, Kalshi