UBS cuts Tesla delivery forecast, flags robotaxi concerns

Tesla registrations fell in California. UBS lowered its forecast for Tesla's first-quarter vehicle deliveries, predicting 345,000 units. That would be a 2% year-over-year increase but an 18% decrease from the previous quarter. The estimate compares with UBS's initial 1Q26 forecast of 360,000 and sits 7% below Visible Alpha's consensus of 371,000.

Tesla will report deliveries for the quarter in the coming weeks. UBS keeps a Sell rating on the stock, with a $352 price target that implies about an 8% downside. Tesla shares are down 17% year to date. UBS analyst Joseph Spark noted that EV deliveries may no longer drive sentiment as they once did, but remain important: "While we expect sentiment will continue to overwhelmingly drive the stock (certainly more than auto deliveries), it is (primarily) the auto business that helps fund Tesla's cash flow and hence their investment for growth ($20bn capex this year)." The analysts also flagged rising investor concern about Tesla's robotics and robotaxi plans.

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