US December nonfarm payrolls forecast +60,000 could reshape Fed rate-cut bets

Beincrypto reports economists expect US Nonfarm Payrolls to rise by 60,000 in December, after a 64,000 increase in November, ahead of the Bureau of Labor Statistics release on Friday at 13:30 GMT. The employment report is likely to bring heightened volatility to the US dollar as markets reassess Federal Reserve policy prospects.

Forecasters see the unemployment rate edging down to 4.5% from 4.6% and annual wage inflation ticking up to 3.6% from 3.5%. The ADP private payrolls report showed a 41,000 rise in December, and the ISM services employment index climbed to 52. TD Securities said it expects job gains to stabilize around 50,000 over the past two months, with private payrolls up about 50,000, the government shedding roughly 10,000 jobs, unemployment normalizing to 4.5%, and average hourly earnings rising 0.3% month-on-month and 3.6% year-on-year.

The CME FedWatch Tool places under a 15% chance of a 25-basis-point cut this month and about a 45% chance for March, meaning the payrolls print could shift market odds. Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin said rate decisions will need to be "finely tuned" and warned against further job-market deterioration, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari said the job market is "clearly cooling" and the unemployment rate could "pop from here." Rabobank analysts expect markets to fine-tune timing of the next cut and see choppy trading ahead.

Key Topics

Business, Nonfarm Payrolls, Bls, Federal Reserve, Us Dollar, Eur/usd