US-Israel Strikes Trigger $6.5M Wipeout on Polymarket

US and Israeli strikes on Iran produced large swings on the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, leaving one trader with a $6.4–$6.5 million loss and others with six‑figure gains. Blockchain analysis shows an account using the pseudonym anoin123 had systematically placed massive wagers that President Donald Trump would not authorize direct military intervention; those contracts became worthless when munitions hit Tehran and other Iranian cities.

Meanwhile, a trader known as Vivaldi007, who began buying shares on February 8 in anticipation of a joint attack, turned earlier losses into a $385,000 profit. A wallet labeled Roeyha2026 was funded roughly 11 hours before the strikes and converted a $50,000 bet on a US strike before March 1 into nearly $100,000, prompting debate over possible insider trading.

Those outcomes have sharpened scrutiny of prediction markets.

Iran, Tehran

polymarket, prediction market, blockchain analysis, insider trading, anoin123, vivaldi007, roeyha2026, iran strikes, donald trump, tehran