Analysis says US push into Venezuelan oil could use 13% of 1.5C carbon budget

US plans to exploit Venezuela’s oil reserves could, by 2050, consume more than a tenth of the world’s remaining carbon budget to limit warming to 1.5C, an analysis for the Guardian by carbon accounting firm ClimatePartner found. The calculation underlines how further exploitation of Venezuela’s vast proven reserves would add pressure to climate goals.

ClimatePartner modelled a rise in Venezuelan production of +0.5m barrels per day by 2028, ramping to +1.58m barrels per day from 2035 to 2050; that scenario would consume 13% of the remaining carbon budget for 1.5C. Fully tapping the reserves would, the analysis said, exhaust the entire 1.5C budget, though the Guardian noted such an eventuality is unlikely because Venezuela’s oil infrastructure is decrepit after years of sanctions.

Industry estimates cited in the analysis describe Venezuela’s crude as a heavy, sour grade with a dense, tar-like consistency and high sulphur content that requires energy-intensive extraction. A study by S&P Global Platts Analytics found the Orinoco Belt had by far the highest carbon intensity of any major oil region: about 1,460kgCO2e per barrel of oil equivalent versus 1.6kgCO2e/boe for Norway’s Johan Sverdrup field.

Key Topics

World, Venezuela, Orinoco Belt, Carbon Budget, Climatepartner, S&p Global Platts