VanEck Sees Risk-On First Quarter of 2026 as Fiscal Clarity Grows

Global investment manager VanEck said markets are likely to be in a risk-on environment in the first three months of 2026, citing greater clarity around fiscal policy, monetary direction and major investment themes. "As we move into 2026, markets are operating in an environment with something investors have not had in years: visibility," VanEck said in a Q1 2026 Outlook on Tuesday.

VanEck highlighted an improving US fiscal picture, saying: "One of the most important developments for markets is the gradual improvement in the US fiscal picture." The firm added that deficits are shrinking as a percentage of GDP from COVID-era highs, which it said is "helping anchor longer-term interest rates and reduce tail risks." It noted a risk-on backdrop tends to favor riskier assets such as AI and tech stocks and crypto, but flagged that Bitcoin has decoupled from stocks and gold after a large deleveraging event in October.

Key Topics

Crypto, Vaneck, Bitcoin, Us Fiscal Policy, Federal Reserve, Ai Stocks