Wait for Iran to stop attacks before buying the dip, BCA says

President Donald Trump said the war with Iran was 'very complete, pretty much.' US stocks quickly erased losses and all three benchmark indexes ended the day higher. Matt Gertken, chief geopolitical strategist at BCA Research, warned that Trump's comment is not the 'buy signal' investors should wait for.

"The 'buy signal' will come when Iran, not Trump, agrees to cease attacks or negotiate," he said, noting Iran could have a higher tolerance for prolonged conflict than the US. BCA said it would remain overweight cash compared to stocks and bonds and highlighted Iran's incentive to prolong the conflict.

The firm suggested Iran might escalate temporarily, such as by continuing to block the Strait of Hormuz through the end of the week, before coming to the negotiating table. BCA estimated a 70% chance of a 'massive oil shock' versus a 30% chance of de‑escalation.

United States

iran, donald trump, bca research, matt gertken, buy signal, stocks, overweight cash, hormuz strait, oil shock, de-escalation