Warming won't drastically shorten modern EV battery life

Technological progress appears to outweigh the effects of a warming climate, even under a 4° C scenario. Older batteries, which have a median lifespan of around 15 years today, would drop by about 20 percent to a median of 12 years under 4° of warming. Newer batteries, with a current median of 17 years, should still average roughly 17 years under the same conditions.

Older chemistries also show a much wider spread in aging: the worst cases for older packs may see lifetime losses of 30 percent or more, while newer batteries have percentiles much closer to the median and might suffer up to about 10 percent degradation in the worst conditions.

“I think these improvements are well-known to experts in the field. But when I started this project, I was looking at web forums and reading how people were deciding on cars,” Wu said.

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