What anonymous Oscar ballots reveal about this year’s frontrunners

The Academy’s post-2016 widening of its membership has made the race harder to predict, with foreign-language picks, outsider narratives and pricklier characters moving into the major categories. Anonymous ballots remain a risky guide — they should be taken with a pinch of salt as the voting base grows — but with many categories still undecided they offer useful glimpses of where support sits.

Jessie Buckley looks all but certain in her category, having won every precursor and drawing praise on ballots as “the performance of the year” and on “a whole other level,” while five of Variety’s eight voters and three of Entertainment Weekly’s four picked her.

The best supporting actress race is tighter. Teyana Taylor has a Golden Globe, Wunmi Mosaku the Bafta, and Amy Madigan has Critics Choice and Actor awards; ballots praise Madigan as “wonderful for a veteran actor,” note she carries “substantial goodwill,” and call her turn “classic” or “showy, nutty, crazy.” The picture race has narrowed to Sinners and One Battle After Another.

oscars, academy, jessie buckley, teyana taylor, wunmi mosaku, amy madigan, best picture, anonymous ballots, golden globe, bafta