What to expect after robust January jobs gain

Economists expect the US added 55,000 jobs in February and for the unemployment rate to hold at 4.3%. January showed a stronger gain of 130,000 jobs, but revisions revealed 2025 added just 181,000 jobs — the weakest annual growth outside a recession since 2003.

The economy still expanded 2.2% last year. Analysts call the labor market unusual. Gregory Daco described it as a "deep freeze," with hires, quits, and openings much lower than a few years ago. "This is an unusual job market, and so you would expect something to break," Laura Ullrich said.

Atsi Sheth noted, "Consumers are feeling the weight of the price increases, and combined with the jobs outlook that's worsening they say, 'OK, when I look out, I don't see prices going down that much, but I do see my wage is not growing and my job not being as reliable or secure as it once was.'" One clear exception has been private healthcare and social assistance: employment in the sector rose 18% from January 2019 and private education and health services added 137,000 jobs in January.

United States

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