Where Bitcoin Might Bottom: Key Levels Analysts Are Watching

Bitcoin has fallen more than 22% over the past month, briefly hitting its lowest level in over a year before a partial rebound. Market data showed the largest cryptocurrency dropped to $60,000 on February 6 and was trading at $70,354 at press time, up 1.20% on the day.

The pullback has sharpened debate over where the bear market will bottom, with several analysts focusing on price zones below $40,000. 10x Research suggested the broader downtrend remains intact, and flow data — continued ETF withdrawals and rising stablecoin conversions — point to cautious positioning and ongoing deleveraging rather than preparation for a typical snapback rally.

Technical and on-chain models point to different targets. Ardi highlighted the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement near $39,176; Nehal’s drawdown framework, noting declines of 93% in 2011, 86% in 2015, 84% in 2018 and 77% in 2022, projects roughly a 70% drop from a $126,000 peak to near $38,000.

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