Who is favored to win an Oscar, according to Kalshi and Polymarket

Bettors on prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket expect "One Battle After Another" to win six Oscars, "Sinners" four, and "Frankenstein" three. The Oscars, hosted this year by Conan O'Brien, air Sunday, and traders have wagered tens of millions across the Academy's 24 categories.

Paul Thomas Anderson's "One Battle After Another" is the odds-on favorite for Best Picture, at about 80% on Polymarket and 78% on Kalshi, with more than $44 million wagered on the category across the two platforms. Anderson is also the overwhelming favorite for Best Director, with chances in the low 90s.

In acting categories, Michael B. Jordan leads Best Actor at roughly 60% after winning Outstanding Male Actor in a Leading Role at the Actor Awards on March 1; Timothée Chalamet, who was the frontrunner in January, now sits in the low-to-high 30s. Jessie Buckley is seen as likely to take Best Actress at about 97%.

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