Why Quantum Computing Isn’t the Immediate Bitcoin Threat Many Assume

Concerns that quantum computing could one day break Bitcoin’s cryptography have resurfaced, but CoinShares argues the risk remains distant. The firm frames quantum computing as a long-term engineering challenge and says Bitcoin has ample time to adapt before quantum machines reach a cryptographically relevant scale.

In theory, Shor’s algorithm could derive private keys from public keys and enable unauthorized spending, yet such an attack would require quantum machines with millions of stable, error-corrected qubits—far beyond today’s capabilities. CoinShares’ analysis finds the real exposure is small.

About 1.6 million BTC, roughly 8% of the supply, sit in legacy Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK) addresses where public keys are already exposed. Even so, the report estimates only around 10,200 BTC—less than 0.1% of Bitcoin’s total supply—could plausibly be targeted in a way that would have meaningful impact.

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