Wintermute says 2026 crypto recovery hinges on ETFs, big-asset gains or retail return

Crypto market maker Wintermute said 2025 was disappointing as Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle produced a muted rally that failed to spill into the broader altcoin market, and that any recovery in 2026 depends on several uncertain factors. In its digital asset OTC market review, Wintermute said the market’s long-standing pattern of “recycling,” where gains in Bitcoin and Ether flowed into altcoins, broke down in 2025.

Liquidity concentrated in a small group of large-cap assets, driven largely by exchange-traded funds and institutional inflows, producing narrower market breadth and sharper divergence in performance. Wintermute argued the four-year cycle may be weakening: “2025 provided evidence that the traditional four-year cycle is becoming obsolete,” it said, adding that “market breadth narrowed significantly, with altcoin rallies averaging roughly 20 days, down from around 60 days the year before.” It said conditions in 2026 would improve only if at least one of three developments occurs: ETFs and digital asset treasury companies expand mandates beyond Bitcoin and Ether; the major assets post another strong performance that generates a broader wealth effect; or retail investor attention returns.

Bringing retail back will be difficult, Wintermute said, as institutional participation has increasingly driven Bitcoin’s gains and memories of the 2022–2023 bear market remain fresh.

Key Topics

Crypto, Wintermute, Bitcoin, Ether, Etfs, Altcoins