XRP Price Breakdown Makes Bears Cheer, But Are They Missing the $1.28 Trap?

XRP has entered a critical phase after falling more than 5% in the past 24 hours and confirming a bearish head-and-shoulders breakdown on the 8-hour chart, projecting a downside target near $1.12 — about a 20% decline from the neckline. Derivatives markets show growing bearish conviction: open interest rose 3.25% to $774.42 million and funding rates sit at -0.019% (up from -0.0025%), meaning shorts are paying to hold positions.

Yet spot behavior tells a different story — exchange outflows climbed from 63.83 million XRP on February 17 to 78.38 million on February 22, a roughly 23% increase, suggesting accumulation rather than selling; on February 19 the derivatives market still showed high open interest and a positive funding rate near 0.0036%.

Mid-term holders have been adding to their positions: the 3- to 6-month cohort increased its supply share from 10% to 15.86% over the past month, a near 60% rise. These investors typically accumulate during periods of fear and do not usually respond to short-term volatility.

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