XRP Shows Rebound Pattern, But Buying Drops 85% and Holders Pull Back

XRP is trading near $1.38 and has formed a familiar rebound pattern that has preceded major recoveries. Since late January the price made lower lows while the Relative Strength Index formed higher lows, a divergence that also appeared in late December 2025 before XRP reclaimed the 20-period EMA and rallied over 28%.

On-chain metrics, however, do not confirm the bullish setup. Exchange net outflows fell from about 107 million tokens on February 8 to roughly 16 million by February 11, an 85% collapse in buying pressure. Long-term holder accumulation declined from about 337 million on February 1 to roughly 128 million by February 11, a drop of more than 60%.

Derivatives markets add further downside risk. In the Binance XRP/USDT perpetual market, medium-term short-side liquidation exposure stands near $148 million versus about $83 million on the long side. Short-term data on Gate shows long liquidations near $63.9 million and shorts around $51 million, leaving roughly 30% more exposure on the long side.

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