17,000 BTC Sent to Exchanges Threatens Bitcoin Recovery

Bitcoin's recent push toward $90,000 failed to hold after more than 17,000 BTC were moved to exchanges between Jan. 20 and 21, a surge that has raised concern it could deepen the ongoing sell-off even as some spot-market indicators suggest traders view current prices as discounted.

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. reported the atypical inflow totaled 9,867 BTC on Jan. 20 and 6,786 BTC on Jan. 21, contrasting with January’s average daily netflow range of -2,000 to +2,000 BTC. Although exchange netflow has since normalized to +296 BTC, Adler said the accumulated inflows create a supply overhang near current price levels and make the move toward $89,000–$90,000 a key resistance test.

Short-term holder metrics also point to pressure: the seven-day SMA of the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) sits at 0.996, below the 1.0 break-even level, and at the recent price low near $87,500 the SOPR fell to 0.965, implying an average 3.5% loss for short-term holders. Data from Glassnode and other sources show some improving spot-market conditions.

Binance and aggregate exchange cumulative volume delta (CVD) rotated back toward buy-dominant conditions, selling pressure on Coinbase stabilised, and aggregated exchange spot CVD reached highs last seen in April 2025 — a period that previously preceded range expansion. Crypto analyst Darkfost noted stablecoin metrics also point to a potential bottoming process, with the Stablecoin Supply Ratio recording its sharpest drop of the cycle.

Key Topics

Crypto, Bitcoin, Axel Adler Jr, Binance, Coinbase, Sopr