21Shares: XRP has 30% chance to reach $2.69 in 2026 on ETF inflows

Asset manager 21Shares said XRP has a 30% chance of reaching $2.69 in 2026, a bullish scenario it tied to US regulatory clarity and strong inflows into newly approved spot XRP ETFs. The report noted that SEC litigation effectively ended in August 2025, reopening access to US institutions, and that the XRP spot ETFs amassed roughly $1.3 billion in assets within a month of launch.

Matt Mena, a crypto researcher at 21Shares, told BeInCrypto the ETFs posted a record run of consecutive net inflows, lasting over 50 days. 21Shares also highlighted the XRP Ledger (XRPL) positioning as a neutral settlement layer for tokenized finance and cited the rollout of the RLUSD stablecoin.

RLUSD launched in December 2024 and, the report said, grew from about $72 million to $1.38 billion in under a year—roughly an 1,800% increase—bolstering its role as a potential liquidity and collateral vehicle. The firm warned of downside scenarios if ETF demand erodes, if real-world asset (RWA) volume fails to materialize on XRPL, or if RLUSD adoption stalls.

21Shares also flagged rising competition from networks such as Canton and Solana; the report noted Canton processed trillions in tokenized assets despite being live for under two years. Beyond the 30% bull case, 21Shares assigned a 50% probability to a base case of about $2.45 and outlined a lower-probability bearish outcome toward roughly $1.60.

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