Best Actor Oscar: five nominees' paths to victory

With a month and a half to go until the winner is picked, The New York Times columnist Kyle Buchanan lays out how Timothée Chalamet, Leonardo DiCaprio, Ethan Hawke, Michael B. Jordan and Wagner Moura could each win the best actor Oscar. Buchanan says Chalamet’s powerful closing scenes in Marty Supreme — and his wins at the Critics Choice Awards and Golden Globes — make him a front-runner, but he notes that Oscar voters often hesitate to reward very young men in this category and that a Chalamet victory would make him the second‑youngest best actor winner ever.

On Leonardo DiCaprio, the column argues that at 51 he remains a global superstar whose role in One Battle After Another could finally bring him a second Oscar; Buchanan notes voters have taken him for granted recently, citing his lack of nominations for Killers of the Flower Moon and Don’t Look Up, and says a big sweep for the presumed best picture front‑runner could lift DiCaprio — especially if co‑star Teyana Taylor shows strength in the supporting acting races.

Buchanan describes Ethan Hawke’s Blue Moon performance as a conspicuous transformation — he shaved his head and altered his posture for the role — and says Hawke, 55, is an overdue nominee (his fifth) with acting nods for Training Day and Boyhood plus two co‑writing nominations. The column adds that Blue Moon’s absence from the best picture field may make it harder for busy voters to find him.

About Michael B.

timothée chalamet

marty supreme

golden globes wins

critics choice awards

young actor skepticism

leonardo dicaprio

one battle after another

teyana taylor

ethan hawke

blue moon

big transformation

michael b. jordan

sinners

ryan coogler

wagner moura

the secret agent

best actor oscar

best picture front-runner

acting nods

late surge advantage

first oscar nomination

overdue nominee