Bitcoin 2026 Rally To $150K Possible If These Conditions Are Met

A recent Bernstein outlook lays out conditions under which Bitcoin could recover from its slump and reach $150,000 by year-end: the 200-week simple moving average must hold, new-investor flows need to turn positive, capital parked in stablecoins must rotate back into crypto, quantum-security concerns must ease, and the US Federal Reserve should cut rates in 2026.

The 200-week SMA has acted as a magnet during deep drawdowns and a floor once selling pressure subsides. Bitcoin bottomed near that wave in 2015 and 2018 and only briefly broke below it in 2022; holding above it would lower the odds of a prolonged, 2022-style capitulation and keep the path open for a new bull phase.

Investor flows have been weak: as of February, wallets tracking first-time and short-term holders show roughly $2.7 billion in cumulative outflows, the highest since 2022. In prior cycles, sustained rallies emerged only after new-investor flows flipped decisively positive; ETF net flows turned positive on Monday, which could be an early sign of returning demand.

United States

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