Bitcoin 60K Retest Odds Rise as Options, ETF Outflows Signal Caution

Bitcoin entered a downward spiral after rejecting near $71,000 on Sunday and has defended the $66,000 level through the week. Options markets reflect growing caution: professional traders are paying a 13% premium for put options over calls, while two-month delta skew—normally between -6% and +6%—has remained elevated for four weeks.

On Deribit over the past 48 hours, neutral-to-bearish strategies dominated trading: the bear diagonal spread, short straddle and short risk reversal were the most used. The bear diagonal lowers the cost of a bearish bet because the short-term option decays faster; the short straddle maximizes profit if price barely moves; and the short risk reversal profits from downward moves with little upfront cost but carries unlimited risk if the price spikes.

Other indicators point to weakening institutional demand. Stablecoins are trading at a 0.2% discount versus the USD/CNY rate—below the 0.5%–1% premium typical under neutral conditions and an improvement from a 1.4% discount earlier in the week.

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