Bitcoin ‘Buy-the-Dip’ Narrative Faces 25% Downside Risk
Beincrypto reports that Bitcoin rebounded more than 11% after a near 15% drop, but rising leverage and on-chain signals point to roughly 25% downside risk toward the $48,000–$49,000 area. More than $540 million of new long positions were built on Binance, while exchange supply fell from about 1.23 million to 1.22 million BTC.
On the 4‑hour chart the rebound resembles a bear flag, and a break of the lower trendline would point to a downside move of nearly 25% targeting the $48,000–$49,000 zone. Traders rebuilt heavy leverage following the 11.18% bounce, behavior that has preceded major liquidations in past downturns.
Long-term holders are moving the other way: the 30‑day net position change shifted from net selling of around 2,300 BTC to roughly 246,000 BTC, an increase of nearly 10,500%. The long‑term holder realized price sits near $40,260, which could become a downside magnet if the market approaches or falls below that level.