Bitcoin pares gains after failed $100K breakout — what February 2026 could bring

Bitcoin cooled after failing to hold a sustained breakout above $100,000 in January and has moved into a consolidation phase, according to BeInCrypto’s February 2026 outlook, with on-chain and macro indicators pointing to a cautiously bullish setup. BeInCrypto highlights the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio (90-day SMA) as a key liquidity-sensitive metric: past mid-cycle recoveries typically followed moves above the 5.0 threshold, while failures to hold above 5.0 saw rallies lose momentum.

A renewed rise above 5.0 would suggest new demand absorbing profit-taking. Macro conditions are supportive after the Federal Reserve left rates unchanged at its first meeting of the year, with Chair Jerome Powell saying rates sit within a "neutral range," which the article says signals a potential extended pause.

Market sentiment remains cautious, a backdrop that has historically favored gradual upside continuation. Spot Bitcoin ETFs have shown persistent net outflows over recent months — $3.48 billion in November and $1.09 billion in December — but January outflows slowed to $278 million.

BeInCrypto notes that if ETF flows turn positive in February, institutional demand could reinforce market stability and improve upside odds. Technically, BTC was trading near $88,321 with bulls needing to clear $89,241 and reclaim the $90,000 level; acceptance above $90,000 would confirm strengthening momentum.

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